Thursday, December 29, 2022

Monday, September 27, 2021

 Sources of info on Pandemic 

https://off-guardian.org/2021/09/22/30-facts-you-need-to-know-your-covid-cribsheet/



Saturday, September 11, 2021

 


Saturday, March 13, 2021

Is it that time in the market?

Todays market is characterized by HFT, ETF's, Passive Indexing, Zero commissions, day traders, crypto, NFT's, ARKK and a seemingly endless array of fast money speculation, I find it has all happened before  with slightly different accessories. 

"The object of skilled investment should be to defeat the dark forces of time and ignorance which envelop our future. The actual, private object of the most skilled investment today is "to beat the gun", as the Americans so well express it, to outwit the crowd, to pass the bad ,or depreciating half-crown to the other fellow.

This battle of wits to anticipate the basis of conventional valuation a few months hence ... does not even require gulls amongst the public to feed the maws of the professional; it can be played amongst the professionals themselves.  Nor is it necessary that anyone should keep his simple faith in the conventional basis of valuation having any genuine long-term validity.  For it is, so to speak, a game of Snap, of Old Maid, of Musical Chairs -- a pastime in which he is victor who says Snap neither too soon nor too late, who passes the Old Maid to his neighbor before the game is over, who secures a chair for himself when the music stops.  The game can be played with zest and enjoyment, though all the players know that it is the Old Maid which is circulating, or that when the music stops some of the players will be unseated."

This quotation is pulled from SUPERMONEY by Adam Smith  (nom de plume of George Goodman) a book written in 1972. The quotation was originally written by John Maynard Keynes in THE 
GENERAL THEORY OF EMPLYMENT, INTEREST AND MONEY published in 1936.

Speculative mania appears again and again in history, and leads one to believe it is a feature of human behavior rather than of the market mechanism itself. None of this to say the current manifestation is certain to immediately collapse but merely to wave a caution flag or perhaps a wet blanket.  But I am an old Boomer seeing events through the biased lens of an old futures pit trader bearing the scars of many mini-booms/busts.







Sunday, February 21, 2021

An early step in the plan to move Kamala to the top job.

 A clip from a recent newcast that is being blocked. I hope it will play here.


https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6233603126001 

Wednesday, July 8, 2020

Grant Williams, Bill Fleckenstein, and Mike Green podcast

These podcasts are always good and Mike Green is never to be missed.

Thursday, May 25, 2017

Mentor Moments

"If you don't know who you are the market is a very expensive place to find out." The Money Game

"The market will find and exploit any flaw in your personality." R. E. McMaster


I spent 40 years in exchange traded markets. Most of that time in futures markets as a floor trader. An unorthodox career path meant I never enjoyed the benefit of a mentor. Instead I had "moments of clarity" when I recognized I was hearing or reading something important to trading. What follows was one of those moments.

Three of us were having breakfast after a very busy morning in the bond markets. Bill (name changed) a scalper in the bond pit had been trading 6 or 7 years straight out of college. He traded his own account, a classic local floor trader. Joe asked him how the trade was going and what kind of size he was trading. Bill said he was trading 10 to 20 contract positions and things were going well.  Joe remarked that he remembered Bill trading 100 or 200 contract size positions a few years back.
Bill responded - and here the lesson begins - "I did trade bigger size but I found I didn't make any more money, only endured more risk. Finally I realized the larger size trades didn't suit me and led to poor decisions. So after evaluating my history I gave myself three rules. Now I am performing consistently with much less stress. First: limit myself to 20 contracts or less. Second: if I am down on the day by more than $2000 I exit and quit for the day, no matter what time of day. Third: If I am profitable by more than $4000 on the day I quit for the day as soon as the position is closed, no matter what time of day . I realized when I get outside those parameters my performance worsens and lose discipline."

Now this was a guy who accumulated and kept a million dollars in t-bills as a backup against a bad trading accident. A very successful trader. But he recognized his own limits and incorporated that into his methodology.

Get to know your own psychology as well as Bill and you stand a very good chance finding a trading style that will allow you to succeed.

Friday, September 11, 2015

9/11 Never Forget Never Forgive


Eternal Vigilance Is The Price Of Freedom

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Great Interview of Lacy Hunt

Chris Martenson interviews Lacy Hunt.  Link

Highly recommended. Comes from the Peak Prosperity website.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

All Cultures Are Not Equal - Some Of Them Suck

I received this email today and found its message an important illustration that all cultures are not equal. Certainly that is not the politically correct view but is accurate. The disregard for human life in many of the middle east countries is disgusting.

Subject: Kindness repaid

Snopes verifies this article here:  http://www.snopes.com/politics/israel/eldad.asp


By Dr. Arieh Eldad an M.D. at Hadassah Hospital in Israel

I was instrumental in establishing the "Israeli National Skin Bank", which is the largest in the world. The National Skin Bank stores skin for every day needs as well as for wartime or mass casualty situations.

This skin bank is hosted at the Hadassah Ein Kerem University hospital in Jerusalem where I was the Chairman of plastic surgery.

This is how I was asked to supply skin for an Arab woman from Gaza , who was hospitalized in Soroka Hospital in Beersheva, after her family burned her.

Usually, such atrocities happen among Arab families when the women are suspected of having an affair.

We supplied all the needed Homo-grafts for her treatment. She was
successfully treated by my friend and colleague, Prof. Lior Rosenberg and discharged to return to Gaza.

She was invited for regular follow-up visits to the outpatient clinic in Beersheva.

One day she was caught at a border crossing wearing a suicide belt. She meant to explode herself in the outpatient clinic of the hospital where they saved her life.

It seems that her family promised her that if she did that, they would forgive her.
This is only one example of the war between Jews and Muslims in the Land of Israel. It is not a territorial conflict. It is a civilization conflict, or rather a war between civilization & barbarism. Bibi (Netanyahu) gets it, Obama does not. I have never written before asking everyone to please forward onwards so that as many as possible can understand radical Islam and what awaits the world if it is not stopped.

    ~ Dr. Arieh Eldad

Those who condemn Israel for its actions should stop and consider the enemy they face. The people in Gaza are not the enemy, the nihilist groupthink  of barbarous cult is the enemy. 

Sunday, August 17, 2014

It's Not the Gold, It's The Standard.

It's not the gold, it's the standard that is important. Or with apologies to Robert Frost good fences make good legislators.
Whenever the idea of returning or not to some kind of gold standard backing of currency is discussed
both sides seem to focus on the gold (barbarous relic etc) which is in fact a secondary issue.  The critical portion of the debate is the "standard".  The standard merely needs to be a real item of measurable quantity and useful intrinsic quality, it need not be gold. It could be silver, barrels of oil, bushels of corn, or tons of iron. Gold just has some useful advantages.
But the important part is an unambiguous value for the standard. Paper or fiat currencies have many conveniences but ultimately must rely on the integrity of the governing authorities. Unfortunately the governing authorities have inevitably failed this task. Throughout history failed every time, I repeat, every time.
The standard acts as a fence or boundary reining in abusive fiscal behavior. Governments grow and assume more power when unchecked, apparently this is just part of human nature. When the public users of a currency have the ability to express concerns about excessive spending and currency creation by turning in the paper and demanding the promised standard (gold, corn or whatever) it acts as an important brake on bad governing behavior.
Paper currency and legislators are like an un-fenced yard full of puppies. Sooner or later something shiny is going to draw them into the street.
Good Fences Make Good Currencies too.


Sunday, August 10, 2014

My Favorite Warren Buffett Quote

I have been an admirer of Warren Buffett since I first read about him in the 1970's in a book SUPERMONEY by Adam Smith the very good sequel to the brilliant THE MONEY GAME. (Both books are highly recommended)
Mr. Buffett is famous now and is widely quoted as he deserves to be. But my favorite comes from an answer to a question asked at one of the annual meetings for Berkshire Hathaway a decade or so ago. The shareholder asked Mr. Buffett's opinion on the outlook for Japan.  Mr. Buffett responded by saying it was a good question, but he did not feel particularly qualified to answer. Then he continued (from my memory, not word for word) when I think about something I decide if it is important or not and is it knowable or not. If it isn't important  or if it isn't knowable I don't spend time on it. Your Japan question is important, but for me it is not knowable so I don't think about it.
That remark stopped me cold as I realized how smart that is and how completely I failed in that regard. I still fail at it but I am improving.

Is it important, is it knowable? If it isn't both don't spend time on it.



Saturday, July 5, 2014

ukrainian journalist speaks more truth than the entire U.S. media complex

this very good article on ZeroHedge today.

July 4th holiday weekend is a very good time to be considering what this Ukraiian journalist wrote in his commentary on change in Ukraian governance. " “Why don’t we use the American Constitution? It was written by really smart guys, it has worked for over 200 years, and they’re not using it anymore…”


Sunday, June 15, 2014

Fathers Day 2014

This note is a reprise of my post on Father's Day 2007 just after my father passed away. I have nothing but fond memories for my father and my admiration for him grows every day as I try to live up to his example of integrity and genuine kindness.

"My father passed away yesterday. His death was not tragic nor unexpected since his health had been failing for a long time and we had been told to plan for less than 6 months. He passed quietly in his sleep without the stress and trauma of heroic medical efforts. Yet I am crushed. Dad was not particularly successful in any of the ways that greatness is usually measured. He achieved neither fame nor wealth, but, he may have been the best person I know. Generous to a fault, scrupulously honest, he treated everyone of any station with respect and kindness. I am a father and grandfather now and could not have had a better role model. Dad was the best.

Bruce Blackmore Lawrence
March 18, 1918 San Antonio, Texas -- June 16, 2007 Dallas, Texas

Awarded the Bronze Star and several other combat medals during service in World War Two.
Survived by his wife Ruth, children Laird, Rees, and Bruce Jr., granddaughter Kate and great granddaughter Isabelle.

He was the world's best Dad and I will miss him."

Saturday, June 7, 2014

Tim Price: We All Lost

Tim Price wrote a really good piece on central bank policy pointing to the same issues I have been ranting about, only better. Check it out here "We All Lost"

includes this great quote of Ludvig von Mises;
“The most important thing to remember is that inflation is not an act of God, that inflation is not a 
catastrophe of the elements or a disease that comes like the plague. Inflation is a policy.” 

Friday, June 6, 2014

Frankfurt we have a problem

Frankfurt, We have a problem.

Yesterday Mario Draghi to great anticipation of the markets unveiled a slew of policy actions designed to help lift European economies, fight deflationary pressures, and weaken the Euro. That is exactly the way the markets responded, briefly, two hours actually. Then the Euro firmed up again.

What’s a central banker got to do to trash his currency? Well first his has to outdo the other central bankers and governments. But Draghi also has to outdo Obama and that is a tall order. Obama is using unconventional tools like economic sanctions against half a dozen countries, and more importantly against individual citizens of those countries. For example, what are the odds a rich oligarch from Russia is going to deposit large sums of money in the US in the future? Wealthy people in around the world are repeatedly being shown that their assets in the US will be seized if their home country government does something to annoy the US government. Furthermore the Snowden revelations about NSA electronic spying on practically every bit of electronic information means the US government likely knows where money in the US is deposited already. Those are pretty strong incentives to hide stolen billions in the Euro rather than the dollar. Financial Orbit shared the following Gave-Kal chart today. One would normally expect the blue exchange rate to tail off and follow the interest rate differential.  Many factors are at work here, of course, but rising wariness about a surveillance based government with little regard for legal protections makes a poor refuge. The Dollar brand is and has been badly damaged by the authoritarian leanings of the current US administration.













Sunday, June 1, 2014

Richter: The Big Hoax Of The Wall Street Hype Machine

Wolf Richter of the Testosterone Pit wrote :

The Big Hoax Of The Wall Street Hype Machine


Follow the link to read the article.  The point of the article which reads a a negative comment on the  stock
market is not to predict any imminent directional moce. The point is to highlight the manipulative practices of Wall Street that are designed to mislead individual investors and capture their money. Wall Street has become an environment of very smart people demonstrating  questionable integrity and acting unethically. A high class carnival run by clever and charming con-men.  Most are not "Wolf of Wall Street" types  who want to steal every dollar you have but instead want siphon off a measly 1 or 2% in perpetuity. Be careful out there.


Monday, May 26, 2014

Central Bank Speak translated.

Action Economics posted the following news from European authorities comments this weekend:

Central bank action continues to dominate market swings with accommodative policy stances expected to help underpin and boost economic growth. But, last week both the FOMC and the ECB acknowledged they are in uncharted territory. The Fed Minutes revealed policymaker concerns that there has never been a tightening while holding a large balance sheet, and thought it might be best to consider a range of policy options and be prepared to mix tools as warranted.
The ECB's Weidmann said negative interest rates are unchartered territory and he warned that risks and side effects need to be taken into account. These uncertainties among policymakers regarding various policy tools, outcomes, and spillover effects could make for dicey trading over the coming weeks and months. Meanwhile geopolitics will play a supporting role in the aftermath of the elections in Europe and Ukraine. Though they aren't key factors for the markets, they could have an underlying impact farther down the road.

My translation: We continue to be confident in our policies. Looking ahead we do not know what to do or when to do it, we disagree with one another, and we have no experience with this situation before. Also many other unknowns and uncertainties may cause us to change our minds because, you know, shit happens. But we remain fully confident.

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Misdirection And The Carnival Barkers Of Credit

Misdirection and the Carnival Barkers of Credit.

Every now and then I am compelled to annoy with another screed about the dangers of the Central Bank.  Let me first say I believe Fed officials are intelligent, well meaning, and superbly educated. I could add self-important, insular, and arrogant, but I won’t.  My purpose today is only a reminder.
Any and every thing the Fed does and says has a purpose. That purpose is to influence opinions and thus behavior. There is always an agenda. Fed officials are the carnival barkers of credit. Truth is not relevant. The purpose is to shape a consensus in financial circles that control the direction funds are flowing.  Misinformation and misdirection are utilities. The magic trick is not to make the elephant disappear when the audience glances away.  The trick is to make the audience glance away. It is no accident that the magician’s assistant is half naked and wearing sequins. Lady Gaga explains the Federal Reserve's jawboning process very clearly: “I’m telling a lie in a vicious effort to make you repeat my lie over and over until it becomes true.” My reminder is figure out where they want you to look because then you might be able to figure out where they don’t want you to look.  That is where the elephant is. ( Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory is excellent on this subject}

Central Bankers are not liars by nature and once in a while some pure truth slips out. Recently Esther George gave us this when discussing QE and the taper getting into this unconventional policy was uncharted waters and I can assure you that getting out of this will be equally experimental for us.”  That is an important and unusually candid remark. The enormous and creative effort by the Fed to support and revive the economy can be debated pro and con. But an undeniable fact is that the policy is a tar baby from which the Fed faces a difficult exit. How does one withdraw all that stimulus without stalling the economic recovery? The world is watching ready to react and change investment allocation the minute they sense interest rates will increase.  A lot of misdirection will be required.
Last year Bernanke mentioned the taper of QE and set off what is now called the “Taper Tantrum” in the credit markets as rates lurched sharply higher only to fall a good ways back again as the Fed really did not do much of anything. I hear that referred to as a mistake, but I disagree. I believe Mr. Bernanke put a pin to the balloon and relieved a lot of pressure. This may be a little boy cried wolf strategy. Create a few mini panic sell offs in bond markets to desensitize the markets and dull responses to policy changes. If so, it was just the beginning.  Keep your eyes on the elephant, don’t watch the shiny stuff.

Misdirection is a form of deception in which the attention of an audience is focused on one thing in order to distract its attention from another.  Wikipedia

The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance  …  it is the illusion of knowledge.  Stephen Hawking

“All the perplexities, confusion, and distress in America arise, not from want of honor or virtue, but from the downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation.”  --    John Adams

“Everything the State says is a lie, and everything it has it has been stolen.” 
― 
Friedrich Nietzsche

"When it becomes serious, you have to lie," Juncker

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

President Peaceprize Closes In On A New War

From Zerohedge just now:

Here Come The Boots On The Ground: US Troops Heading To Eastern Europe


It seems the truce "deal" is well and truly dead...
  • 600 U.S. TROOPS HEADING TO EUROPE FOR EXERCISES: PENTAGON
  • U.S. AIRBORNE TROOPS GOING TO POLAND, LITHUANIA, LATVIA,ESTONIA
  • U.S. MILITARY EXERCISES ARE IN RESPONSE TO UKRAINE CRISIS:KIRBY
  • MORE MILITARY EXERCISES 'COMING THROUGH' NATO: PENTAGON
The question now, of course, is - what will Putin do in response to this action?
As for where these troops may be arriving from the answer is simple: that other US military intervention success story - Afghanistan. From Reuters:

Foreign adventures the historic fallback for unpopular politicians. 

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

"In Texas we call that a lie."- John Mauldin

John Mauldin in his Outside The Box letter today included remarks that so accurately echo my feelings on 
the recent actions by Brandeis University that I am going to lift those remarks whole.

Speaking of which, one of my personal heroines is Ayaan Hirsi Ali. Her courage in confronting the oppression of women at the risk of her own life is inspiring. In person she is a quiet, reserved, formidable force of nature. This last week she suffered an unjust, cowardly affront to her courage and her work dedicated to helping those who can’t help themselves.
Brandeis University decided to offer Ayaan an honorary doctorate for her efforts on behalf of women in Muslim societies. When the decision was announced, a group of students, faculty members, and the usual politically correct pressure groups campaigned to have the university withdraw the honor. Brandeis president Frederick Lawrence quickly capitulated. Not even bothering to sign his own notice, he offered that Ayaan’s story is “compelling,” whatever that means. But, he added, “That said, we cannot overlook certain of her past statements that are inconsistent with Brandeis University’s core values. For all concerned, we regret that we were not aware of the statements earlier.”
That is simply Academic Bullshit. First of all, no one requested or forced Brandeis to offer the degree in the first place; it was their own clear choice. Secondly, after two best-selling books and hundreds of public appearances, Ayaan has made her views well-known. That she has criticized certain aspects of Islamic culture is no secret. For the Brandeis administration to say that they were unaware of her views stretches one’s sense of credulity beyond the limit. In Texas we would simply call it a lie.
I would be interested in the views of those who opposed her. Precisely which of the practices she condemns would they like to see maintained? Female genital mutilation, honor killings, forced marriage, or Sharia law? Perhaps treating women as property is deemed appropriate by some people.
The simple fact is, there is a portion of the academic community that is so politically correct that they are socially useless. In the name of being tolerant they tolerate acts so despicable as to be worthy of shunning. They have the discernment of a fruitfly. And that is probably an insult to fruitfly-kind. -- John Mauldin
Thanks to John fo speaking out. Incidentally Outside The Box is a consistently interesting newsletter.
 .
Outside the Box is a free weekly economic e-letter by best-selling author and renowned financial expert, John Mauldin. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting http://www.mauldineconomics.com.

For more on this story I suggest you follow this link:
Feminists and others on the Left are usually very good at “outrage,” especially when it can be expressed on behalf of what they believe is an oppressed group. Which is why it is both surprising and disappointing that they missed two amazing opportunities recently to be rightly outraged on behalf of women both in America and internationally.

Friday, March 28, 2014

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Via ZeroHedge--What Happens If A US President Stops Speaking, And Nobody Claps

great video clip at ZeroHedge --must watch it is short--  Clip 

Looks like some folks realize "the One" is really "the Wind" , and empty blowhard.

Thanks to ZeroHedge for putting up the film clip.