Sunday, December 9, 2007

Statistical Sensationlism

Bloomberg ran the following headline today: Derivative Trades Soar to Record $681 Trillion in Third Quarter
Now this headline is accurate but misleading as are most statistics on derivatives trade in the press. The article itself is much more straight forward in its reporting.
Why is the headline number of $681 trillion misleading? Because the notional value of many of these trades is oftem misrepresentative of the amounts really at risk. I trade eurodollar future derivatives at the CME. The contract size is based on the interest rate paid for a deposit of $1,000,000 for 90 days in one of a number of prominent European banks. If I make a purchase of 100 contracts expiring in December 08 and sell a like amount of the March 09 contract expecting a change in their relative prices during the day of 1 point, the kind of trade a pit trader makes all day, and i am right I will make $25 per contract or $2500 total. But the statistics on derivatives totals traded will show I have traded $400,000,000 of derivatives on that trade. Four Hundred million of derivatives traded vastly overstates the real economic value of that trade. I was trading the amount of interest to be earned on a million dollars in one 90 day period versus another 90 day period, a considerably smaller sum. Be careful with headline statistics, they are often aimed a grabbing attention more than informing.
Twain had it right: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.

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