Friday, November 21, 2008

Panic in Bond Market and Banking System

I have been in the market as a futures trader for 30 years and some very painful trades are creating consternation in the debt markets today. Two bank prop desks have bought approximately 40,000 210 calls on the five year treasury note today. That strike price implies a negative 9% (all numbers approx) rate of interest. NEGATIVE!! That means paying 9% to give the government your money for 2 years!

This is almost certainly a panic extreme hedge against some risk in a non exchange traded derivative that is causing capital impairment charges. Here is a link talking about this issue:
money at aol

I don't want to pass rumors so I won't give names but this is extraordinary and a really desperate protective measure. Desperate enough that gold is up.

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