Sunday, January 27, 2008

Citicorp Continues To Have Its Finger On The Pulse Of The Market


Citicorp who gave us 4, no 7, no 12, no 20 billion in losses in subprime mortgage trading continues to demonstrate a keen appraisal of market conditions. Ticker Sense pointed out the Citicorp analyst rating of Ambac:
The chart below (above here ) highlights Citigroup's recommendations for ABK since they began coverage of the stock in August of 2006. The blue line represents the price target, and the red dots highlight each reiteration of the rating and changes in the price target. As shown, the analyst maintained a "Buy" rating on the stock throughout the 90% decline. Throughout the decline the price target was reduced from $103 to $18 (-82.5%), and yet the "Buy" rating was maintained. The stock was downgraded to "Hold" on 1/18, at the low close.
Jeez. Ticker Sense goes on to say:
Our intent here is not to harp on Citigroup, or implicate them as bad analysts, this is only one example of a host of bad calls made by many firms. The point we make is that even professionals get it wrong.
Ticker Sense is not bashing Citicorp in particular, though I am. Ticker Sense is cautioning about Wall Street analysts in general. i would only change one thing in their post. I would amend that last sentence to read "The point we make is professionals get it wrong."

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