Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Case Schiller House Price Index Still Bleak


Chart from Calculated Risk :
We've discussed before the differences between Case-Shiller and OFHEO. Another important point is that the Fed uses the OFHEO series to calculate changes in household real estate worth in the Flow of Funds report. To the extent the OFHEO index missed the runup in prices in recent years, the Fed underestimated the increase in household wealth - and therefore probably underestimated the wealth effect on consumers.

Now that prices are falling, if Case-Shiller is a more accurate reflection of actual prices than OFHEO (as I believe), then the Fed might be underestimating the drag on consumer spending from falling prices.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

IAS360 House Price Index Provides First Monthly View of Housing Price Trends Based on Neighborhood Level Data.

Integrated Asset Services (IAS), a leader in default management and residential collateral valuation, just launched its monthly-reported IAS360 House Price Index http://www.iasreo.com/ias360.html

The new Index represents the industry’s first clear representation of U.S. housing market trends at a county level. IAS360 House Price Index is a comprehensive housing index tracking monthly change in the median sales price of detached single-family residences in more than 15,000 “neighborhoods” across the U.S. This data is then rolled up to report on the changes in 360 counties, nine census divisions, four regions, and the nation overall. The timeliness of the data, which is based on all arms-length transactions occurring in underlying neighborhoods, makes the IAS360 the leading indicator for housing price trends in the U.S. April Index: http://www.iasreo.com/ias3600408.html