Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Russell Napier and Tobin's Q Ratio

from Bloomberg:

By Patrick Rial

Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The 2008 slump in global equities
has further to go if Tobin’s Q ratio is any guide, according to
CLSA Ltd. strategist Russell Napier.

The ratio, a method of valuing U.S. companies developed by
Nobel Prize laureate economist James Tobin, indicates that the
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, set for its worst year since 1931,
may sink by another 55 percent to 400 when the market bottoms
around 2014, London-based Napier said. The ratio divides total
market capitalization by the cost of replacing assets.

click here for the rest of the article.

Update:
Henry Blodgett references the same article but he has a chart! I won't steal it so you better click through.

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