Gartman : Setting the record straight

Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter.

“LET’S SET THE RECORD STRAIGHT:

Listening to the Left here in the US during the debates

regarding the debt ceiling increase one might have

thought that the Tea Party-ite members of the Congress

were absolutely intransigent in their positions and that

only the Left was acting in a nicely bipartisan way. Our

European and Asian clients, reading and listening to the

media’s reporting of the circumstances at the time, might

have reasonably thought only the centre-left was acting

reasonably, and we do indeed understand that

circumstance. That is how the media has presented the

case.

We just thought it might be worthwhile noting that back in

’06, before he was President and when he was the junior

Senator from Illinois, President Obama voted against the

Bush Administration’s request for a debt ceiling increase

one time. The other two times he had the opportunity to

do so, he did not show for the votes on the Senate floor.

We thought that interesting.

Worse, the Democrat Majority Leader in the Senate, Sen.

Reid, voted against every single debt ceiling increase

request when the Republicans controlled the Senate

briefly during the years noted above. He was open in his

opposition; he was adamant in his anger with the

Republican demands. Now he has been just as adamant

in his anger with the Tea Party-ites, calling them terrorists

and the like. We just thought everyone should know. It

seems reasonable and bipartisan on our part to do so.”

Thanks to Dennis Gartman for allowing me to print this. Those interested should go to TheGartman Letter.com

Central Wankers

“Confidence in central bankers’ ability to learn from     past inflation is as likely to be misplaced

as it was in their ability to learn from past credit booms. Gold remains the cleanest insurance

against such overconfidence”     Dylan Grice

The past few weeks have afforded an almost unmatched opportunity to observe the venal mendacity of the political class as it exists in Europe and the United States at the current time. Both groups have bent over backwards to avoid doing the job for which they accept pay, all with lips firmly attached to the butt cheeks of their bankster bosses. 

The European contingent after ducking the problem for as long as they could, have proposed a set of solutions that imbue the Euro Currency with the integrity of a pizza coupon. 

Meanwhile back in Washington DC our elected blowhards are in full blow. They are unable to reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, a meaningless line in the sand that has been moved 67 times since 1960.  Americans face appalling levels of unemployment, a faltering recovery and runaway debt and Obummer and the 535 elves can’t be bothered to stop running for office.  Rutledge once said if you assume politicians are liars and thieves, you do your best forecasting. So following that logic I continue to be bullish gold as the currency these charlatans cannot debase. A debt ceiling agreement will almost certainly produce a correction in the precious metals and the CHF and JPY safe haven currencies. But it will be only a correction.  Global wealth managers are calling Bull-hit on developed country politicians. and moving  to gold. Betting on political cowardice  is traditional  and a good bet.

Obama, Pelosi, Boehner and company are fixing to lie to us all.

There is going to be a budget deficit  reducing agreement soon. The news will be greeted with great sighs of relief. much of it will be smoke and mirrors as usual. The current crop of self absorbed miscreants in Washington are going to change the way they count and call it budget discipline. Perhaps there will be some real fiscal progress, but, that is not the way to bet.
read more here:

BREAKING: Boehner Says There Is 50-50 Chance A Debt Ceiling Deal Will Be Reached In Next 48 Hours

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/breaking-boehner-says-there-is-50-50-chance-a-debt-ceiling-deal-will-be-reached-in-next-48-hours-2011-7#ixzz1RR339Ens

Money Illusionn or How the Government Really Gets In Your Pocket

Bill Gross of Pimco the manager of the largest bond fund in the world has recently ( and rightly) been ranting about Washington and the failure to deal with the US debt buildup. Most recently Pimco has discussed the stock market and "money illusion".  I wrote a short note on what he meant. Available here: 

money illusion  at  Scribd.com

On the debt ceiling and other rantable material.

Hot topic of the day seemed to be the U.S. debt ceiling and would it be raised in time or would the politicos engage in a highly visible contest of wills and risk government default?  Terms like catastrophe and Armageddon are being thrown about and the “irresponsibility”  of those who would take these risks is being shouted to the roof tops.  Well, I say bullshit, bullshit! Wiki has listed the previous times when the debt limit was approached and then raised and guess what, it is a long list.  I have been in the markets since 1975 and the debt limit has been increased more often than my belt size.  It will be again after the buffoons have had their chances to pontificate on TV.  This is as the Bard might say “ a tale told by an idiot, Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

For this issue to become the disaster being described would require a significant number of current elected officials to stand upon some principled objection to the point of being ridiculed as dangerous by the financial press and little Timmy Geithner.  I am more likely to break the world record in the 100 meters than I  am to see so many elected officials take a courageous ( though foolish) stance about anything.  These guys check the polls to find out if they believe in gravity.

I do have some hopeful news though for some compelling TV.  Emails have surfaced that  reveal Goldman’s head of derivatives (or some such position) instructing the sales and trading staff of credit default securities to mark the prices very low to “squeeze the shorts” and force them out of positions and allow Goldman itself to get short at favorable levels. This is evidence of  blatant manipulation of an opaque market. The news has re-energized the previously befuddled Senator Levin who almost certainly will be having hearings again on the issue. So we can all look forward to the almost dream match up of Senator Levin questioning Goldman executives on TV. What could be more entertaining than the demonstrated incompetent versus the criminally unethical.  I drool in anticipation. 

( I do not know why all the different font sizes and I am not taking the time to look)

Powerline: Speaking of Gangster Government

Watch this video on Powerline giving a pretty good picture of how our Congressmen view themselves and how they view the public.
This guy Etheridge is a sack of dung and should be thrown out of office at the earliest opportunity and censured in the meantime.
Follow this link to see what I mean.
\
Throw the Bums Out! All of them both parties.

Related
Ann Althouse

and take this poll at the Instapundit.

Here Comes The Double Dip!!

The G20 finance ministers have decided have a double dip and I believe it is the right thing to do in the longer term, but it ain't going to be peaches and cream for everyone.
The Financial Times broke the news: read here.

Finance ministers from the world’s leading economies ripped up their support for fiscal stimulus on Saturday, recognising that financial market concerns over sovereign debt had forced a much greater focus on deficit reduction.

This is a big deal. Fiscal policies must be cleaned up to restore integrity to Sovereign balance sheets. The trouble is these are contractionary policies being implemented while substantial deflationary pressures still exist.
Fiscal restraint also requires responsible politicians risk the ire of the public and loss of elections. Modern politicians rather assiduously avoid that kind of thing. 

This may cause a setback in Gold too.

Related:

G20: All change on the fiscal front

Pimco's El Erian on the G20

Big Government: Rep Phil Hare " I don't worry about the constitution"

A representative to the national legislature " doesn't care about the constitution."  That certainly speaks volumes about the abysmal quality of our political representative. What a pantsload this guy is.

Go to the Breitbart Big Government site to see this cretin's remarks.

Within one week of ObamaCare being crammed through the Congress, we
had Rep
Jesse Jackson Jr. admiting that programs would need to be cut to
pay for it and we had Sen.
Max Baucus admit that it was really a wealth re-distribution plan.
Now we have Rep. Phil Hare admitting that when it comes to health
care “reform,” he doesn’t “worry about the Constitution”:

Throw the Bums Out, All of Them, Both Parties!  Vote against all incumbent office holders.

Gross Fiscality

Bill Gross ; Let's Get Fisical

What amazes me most of all is that politicians can be bought so cheaply. Public records show that combined labor, insurance, big pharma and related corporate interests spent just under $500 million last year on healthcare lobbying (not much of which went to politicians) for what is likely to be a $50-100 billion annual return. The fact is that American citizens have never been as divorced from their representatives – and if that description fits the Democratic Congress now in control – then it applies to Republicans as well – past and present. So you watch Fox, or is it MSNBC? O’Reilly or Olbermann? It doesn’t matter. You’re just being conned into rooting for a team that basically runs the same plays called by lookalike coaches on different sidelines. A “ballot box” pox on all their houses – Senators, Representatives and Presidents alike. There has been no change, there will be no change, until we the American people decide to publicly finance all national and local elections and ban the writing of even a $1 check for our favorite candidates. Undemocratic? Hardly. Get on the internet, use Facebook, YouTube, or Twitter to campaign for your choice. That’s the new democracy. When special interests, even singular citizens write a check, it represents a perversion of democracy not the exercise of the First Amendment.

Bill Gross manges the largest fund in the world and has a long history of being ahead of everybody else to see what is coming. Plus I applaud him for saying much more eloquently than "Throw the bums out".

Code Of The Cow Country

CODE OF THE COW COUNTRY

It don't take sech a lot o'laws

To keep the range land straight.

Nor books to write 'em in, because

There's only six or eight.

The first one is the welcome sign

Wrote deep in Western hearts;

"My camp is yours, an' yours is mine"

In all cow country parts.

Treat with respectall womankind,

same as yuh would your sister;

Take care o' neighbors strays you find,

And don't call cowboys "mister".

Shet pasture gates when passin' thru;

An takin' all in all

Be jest as rough as peases you,

But never mean nor small.

Talk straight, shoot straight, and never break

Your word to man nor boss;

Plumb always kill a rattlesnake;

Don't ride a sorback hoss.

It don't take law nor pedigree

To live the best yuh can;

These few is all it takes to be

A cowboy an' ..... a man.

        __ Omar Barker

This is one fo my Grandfather Williams favorites; he had it framed on his wall and in the introduction to his book on raising cattle. I also know nothing of Omar Barker the poet. But I am confident most of us would do well to follow the poem's advice. Furthermore, never vote for a politician who fails to measure up to this standard. (most of them)

Mark Perry: Help Wanted No Real World Experience Required

Mark Perry post on the business experience of Obama's cabinet compared to past presidential cabinets. This is not very confidence inspiring if one is a fan of small government. Also explains the disdain for business in this administration.
Chart from Mark Perry:

Blodgett: Don't Be Snookered By That+3.5% GDP Report

I want to reassert that Obama officals claiming responsibility for this GDP improvement means they now own any setback from this point. This article from Henry Blodgett  illustrates the likelihood of set backs. From Clusterstock:

It's Obama's Economy Now

Today the government statisticians released the 3rd Quarter GDP estimate. The gross domestic product was up 3.5% higher than expected and the first up quarter since 2008 2nd qtr. There is as always a good bit of debate about accuracy and most of the talk this time is that the number was inflated 1.1% by the artificial stimulus of cash for clunkers and the first time home buyer taxcredit programs both of which have expired. The argument centered on the chances for the next few quarters to have lesser or falling numbers without those inputs from stimulus. I believe the chance of those next numbers being worse has some very interesting implications.
If the 4th quarter number turns out to be down from the third qtr then the recession becomes Obama"s recession. The administration is claiming the credit for the rebound from Bush's recession that Obama inherited. But once he claims credit for this good number he also owns any future numbers and things could get very hot for him in the new congressional election year.
Obama and the democrats know this so we can expect extensive giveaways and gimmickry in multiple pieces of legislation from here forward. Starting with health care. The new driving force for health care reform is not the reform but the ability to say they passed a reform bill in Obama's first year as promised. The quality or viability of the reforms is a much lower priority than just passage of any old bill named Obamacare..
Be prepared to be buried in lies and bullshit.


related: Mark Steyn : Obama makes Bush his Blame Czar
Steyn being entertaining and right on at the same time as usual.

But we give 22 billion to give the autoworkers GM

World's First Luxury Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

Good Bye America a Swiss banker's reason for pulling out.

Commentary of Wegelin & Co the Swiss Bank that is pulling out from doing business in or investing in America. The comments present a very interesting view of the rapacious effort of the Obama administration and the IRS to take your money away from you. I suggest you read because the same behavior wil be coming your way locally soon. Good Bye America saved at SCRIBD.

Hugh Hendry's most recent letter to investors

Hugh Hendry's latest. for those of you unfamiliar with Mr. Hendry, he is a very successful fund manager who anticipated the down market and has a very clear eye for market reality.

Davidovitz speaks truth to power. (thru Tech Talk)

"We're Going Right Back Into The Tank"

at Clusterstock


I like this guy Davidovitz

John Kerry confirms he is an idiot. (again)

Cantwell is no prize either.
Bloomberg:

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. would be barred from a planned U.S. carbon- emissions market or face trading restrictions under proposals by Democratic senators crafting climate change legislation.

Lawmakers seeking restrictions on carbon markets say speculators contributed to a rise in energy prices last year, when crude oil futures reached a record $147.27 a barrel.

‘No Derivatives, Swaps’

“There will be no derivatives, there will be no credit swaps,” said Senator John Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat, in a July 29 speech at the National Press Club in Washington. “There will be a tighter regulatory control on this so that it will be impossible to play any of those kinds of games.”read it all here

So John these companies who need carbon credits, who do they buy them from? What is the sound of one hand bidding? My guess is the real plan is for free market trade and price discovery of carbon credit values to fail. Then they will have to be awarded by the politicians who would then have a rich new supply of supplicants and political donors.

Two problems for Obama plans

Bloomberg: Firs this article

California’s Nightmare Will Kill Obamanomics: Kevin Hassett

It takes years and years to make a mess as terrible as the California debacle, but the recipe is simple. All that you need is two political parties that are always willing to offer easy government solutions for every need of the voters, but never willing to make the tough decisions necessary to finance the government largess that results. Voters will occasionally change their allegiance from one party to the other, but the bacchanal will continue regardless of the names on the office doors.

California has engaged in an orgy of spending, but, compared with our federal government, its legislators should feel chaste. The California deficit this year is now north of $26 billion. The U.S. federal deficit will be, according to the latest numbers, almost 70 times larger.

Bleak Picture

The federal picture is so bleak because the Obama administration is the most fiscally irresponsible in the history of the U.S. I would imagine that he would be the intergalactic champion as well, if we could gather the data on deficits on other worlds. Obama has taken George W. Bush’s inattention to deficits and elevated it to an art form.

and this article

Glut of $4.5 Trillion Will Haunt Obama’s Dollar: William Pesek

July 6 (Bloomberg) -- It’s not a job Barack Obama signed up for, but it’s his nonetheless: Bond salesman-in-chief.

Such is the lot of a U.S. president overseeing an historic increase in debt issuance. Cartoonists are busily churning out depictions of Obama, who partly nationalized automakers, standing on a car lot hawking Detroit’s clunkers. It’s time to begin picturing Obama shilling bonds few may soon want.

These problems are not unrelated. Obama is doing many things wrong but he didn't cause this, nor did his predecessor. These problems are laid at the door of the congress who continue to behave only in their own self interest and never face up to a problem. Senators and Representatives in Washington represent the largest group of unprosecuted con men/women
in the western world. Throw the bums out!!

The largest tax bill ever and bad policy beside.

The House Opens Pandora's Box
By Robert Romano

On Friday, the House of Representatives opened up a Pandora’s Box. And although the Waxman-Markey carbon-cap bill may not contain all of the evils of humanity, it is a not-so-good start.

The only silver lining is that the American people are now keenly aware of what Congress is up to.

You see, the politicians in Washington probably thought they’d get away with it. That nobody was paying attention. That they could just jam it down the throats of the American people while nobody was watching. That there’d be no time to mount significant opposition to it. Indeed, that there was no time to even read it.

Now, millions of phone calls and emails later sent from Americans across the fruited plain to key legislators, a brief filibuster from the House Republican Leader while he read from an amendment that was filed by House Democrats at 3AM Friday morning, and now a razor-thin vote by which it barely passed, one thing is clear: They were wrong

Read the whole article for the details on this huge boondoggle that has no chance to accomplish its goals.