Thursday, January 17, 2008

Kass: Sell Bonds Short


Doug Kass at the Street.Com today says to:

The bond market is in a bubble that is reminiscent of (and quite possibly as extreme as) other bubbles during previous eras.

From my perch, the only issue is the timing of this trade.

Surprisingly, today's 3.68% yield on the 10-year U.S. note is lower than the yield during the recession of 2001. This low yield appears to be artificially affected by a number of temporary and backward-looking factors.


Mr.Kass goes on to list his arguments but I let you click the link to get those. I would only add two brief comments. 1. This recession may be a lot worse than the one in 2001 as it has a much broader set of causes. 2. If you want to short bonds do it by buying puts that limit your risk. Interest rate markets are trending strongly higher and there is no reason to jump in front of a freight train. however, I agree that when the uptrend is over there will be a long ride down in the bonds.

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